Re: Smashes (was: Another combat factor)

Carl Edman (cedman@cedman.remote.Princeton.EDU)
Wed, 21 Sep 94 16:07:43 -0400

The Good Doctor writes:
> I'm not sure I like smashes all that much. They seem to make sense when
> you talk about a dragon versus a group of peasants, but do they make any
> sense in mixed combat groups?

Like this for example (with N=10):

./battle -w 10 A: 5 nobles 2 chimeras 25 peasants B: 1 dragon 3 nazgul 25 undead
After 1000 battles on land (missile factor: 1.00) 70.79 blows/battle:
A: 66.40% victorious
0 noble: 5 -> 3.09 losses 38.16%
0 chimera: 2 -> 1.34 losses 33.15%
0 peasant: 25 -> 11.70 losses 53.21%

B: 33.60% victorious
0 dragon: 1 -> 0.34 losses 66.40%
0 nazgul: 3 -> 0.77 losses 74.40%
0 undead: 25 -> 2.99 losses 88.04%

> A B
> 5 nobles 1 dragon
> 2 chimera 3 nazgul
> 25 peasants 25 undead
> So this battle will probably start off (after some period of the cannon
> fodder swinging at one another) with side A "smashing" through the undead
> and side B "smashing" through the peasants, followed by more-or-less the
> battle system we have now.

That's not really the case. After each smash a new defender is selected. So
even if one of the big guys gets to attack, it is unlikely that he will get
more than 5 or so little guys in a row before going up against an enemy big
guy. He will either hit or miss that enemy, but his rampage will almost
certainly stop while leaving most enemy little guys unharmed.

That this is true you can see from the simulation. While the little guys do
suffer heavier losses than the big guys, the difference isn't very large. In
most battles most of the little guys on the victorious side survive. And if
you run the simulation without the walkover rule, on average a _larger_
number of the little guys die.

> Even worse, consider:
> A B
> 1 noble 1 dragon
> 100 archers
> ----
> 1 noble
> 100 peasants
> This is likely to start off with the dragon "smashing" through the entire
> front line before the 100 archers get off more than one or two shots,
> then smashing through the 100 archers. Is it really reasonable to assume
> that the swarm of 200 attackers around the dragon are only going to get
> off 3-4 blows before they are all killed?

I don't know how you get that prediction. The attackers are on average going
to get about 100 blows before the dragon gets to strike back even once. And
even when it does it will not rampage through all the peasants or archers.
Depending on the value of N, it will kill no more than 50 peasants or 10
archers. And then other side gets lots of blows again.

Carl Edman

Main Index  |  Olympia  |  Arena  |  PBM FAQ  |  Links