Remember, on any given day, any team can beat another (Just ask the
#2 in the nation Miami Hurricanes what they think of the unranked
Arizona Wildcats, or, for the international crowd, think of Cameroon
in the last WC, or Denmark in this year's EC (I think it was Denmark,
or was it Holland?). Whatever...
As a battle commander, I should always feel somewhat nervous, up to
the point where the calculated odds are about 2:1 in my favor. Then I
should always win, but it might be bloody. So, I don't mind having a
minor variability (it's +-5% for each side in combat).