# Re: Smashes (was: Another combat factor)

Scott Turner (srt@sun-dimas.aero.org)
Wed, 21 Sep 1994 21:58:35 -0700

Ed, I can't say I follow your math. You're studying fusion, so I
assume you know what you're doing... :-)

>Now let D=1 and M=10, then we have:
> N p q peasant knight strength loss
> --- ---- ---- ------- ------ -------------
> 40 .800 .200 11.0212 2.5329 125.0000
> 60 .857 .143 15.8338 2.4259 125.0000
> 80 .889 .111 20.2565 2.3276 125.0000
> 100 .909 .091 24.3347 2.2370 125.0000
> 200 .952 .048 40.7385 1.8725 125.0000
> 300 .968 .032 52.5453 1.6101 125.0000

This is 1 dragon vs. 10 knights + N peasants, I think. Here's the
results from the simulators for the regular method and the 4:1 rule:

N Regular 4:1
--- ------- ---
40 100% (2.17%, 2.24%) 88% (20%, 20%)
60 90% (20%, 20%)
80 90% (20%, 20%)
100 93% (19%, 18%)
200 95% (16%, 16%)
300 97% (13%, 13%)

The numbers in parentheses indicate the average losses for (knights,
peasants). As N rises, the winning percentage goes up and the average
losses go down. The balance of losses seems to stay about the same as
well (knight losses are always slightly lower than peasant losses, as
in the regular system, since the dragon is 8% more likely to kill a
peasant in a single blow). This is all expected, since the dragon
picks targets randomly from the whole force.

-- Scott T.

Main Index  |  Olympia  |  Arena  |  PBM FAQ  |  Links